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ARM's Pick of the Week For 5/4/98
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Time
Bomb 2000 : What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You!
by Edward Yourdon, Jennifer Yourdon |
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Paperback, 415 pages
Published by Prentice Hall Computer Books
Publication date: January 1998
Dimensions (in inches): 0.84 x 8.22 x 5.51
ISBN: 0130952842
Amazon.com:
Writings on the year 2000 (Y2K) problem, or the "millennium bug" as some would
have it, have been limited to highly technical analyses of specific problems and their
solutions. Very little attention has been paid to how the Y2K problem will affect the
lives of average people and everyday systems, even though many prognosticators believe
this is where the problem will have the largest impact. In Time Bomb 2000: What the
Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You, Edward and Jennifer Yourdon do just that by
presenting a collection of scenarios ranging from the best we can hope for to the worst
cases. Each chapter investigates a different area of computing and the possible effects of
this disaster on each. From home PCs to world financial networks, the Yourdons explore a
variety of "domino effects" that January 1, 2000, could trigger and the
necessary time, effort, and cost to fix the aftermath. The impacts on real life could be
anywhere between annoying and catastrophic, and the authors examine each extreme. Each
chapter contains "fallback advice," describing the amount of time required to
repair these systems. (The authors liken Y2K to a hurricane--it only lasts a day, but
requires a year of cleanup.)
Although the Yourdons insist that their overall view is optimistic,
it's hard not to feel doomed when reading some of the worst-case scenarios brought on by
the year 2000 problem. While Time Bomb 2000 is meant to be an alert, it's not time
to start stockpiling canned goods yet, and we can probably still party like it's 1999
right on schedule. However, we should remain extremely mindful of what may await us the
next morning.
Synopsis:
"Time Bomb 2000" describes how the year 2000 problem can potentially affect all
facets of business life if not properly addressed. Chapters are devoted to effects on home
PCs, on the job, the news, airplanes, and more. Advice is given on how to deal with the
problem if and when they actually occur.
Comments from readers:
Jen Siegel
(jsiegel@romac.com) from San Jose, California , 04/16/98, rating=3:
Time Bomb 2000: Don't Bother
While the Yourdans clearly expended a great deal of effort in coming up with - and then
naming - some of the many disasters potentially caused by the Y2K problem, it's something
my morbid imagination can do on its own. I was looking for a technical explaination of the
problem, how it happened, why it hasn't been fixed... I was NOT looking for a laundry list
of disasters great and small. The appendix, however, wasn't bad; I think it starts around
page 314.
A. Evangelista , from
Missouri , 04/09/98, rating=10:
A Denial-Buster
When I wrote my own self-sufficiency books a couple years ago (f.x., HOW TO DEVELOP A
LOW-COST FAMILY FOOD STORAGE SYSTEM), I was already pretty well "into"
preparedness. Sure, we had ice storms, bad weather spells where we couldn't have gotten
down our road in a tank, and floods that blocked passage for weeks on end.....But, I
never, never, thought that some minor computer glitch could end up being the Problem of
the Millennium. In fact, up until about 18 days ago, I was proudly telling friends that
the whole y2k thing was nothing more than a giant bogus media frolic, trotted out on slow
news days to hook the masses so they wouldn't switch channels during commercials. I have
suffered a rude awakening. The Yourdon's book has been the route to this rather shocking
turn of mind -- and it is because the book was written for ME (and those like me) who have
a smattering of knowledge about computer function, but no real idea of where the y2k
problem is going to lead. Now, unfortunately, I have an idea of where it's going, and I
kinda wish I was still in blissful ignorance...sorta. Preparedness is a lifestyle, after
all is said and done -- and prepared is prepared. I just thought the calamity I was
preparing for was of a more earth-changing nature, something impossibly large and grand,
on the order of an asteroid or comet striking the earth.........but all it is going to be
is the consequence of a series of tiny decisions made by a pack of computer nerds two
decades ago. Funny how things work out. But, TIME IS WASTING!!! You need this book TODAY!
You still have a short time to prepare!
A reader from Glendale,
AZ , 04/02/98, rating=10:
Is it all over?
I rate this book a ten because it could be vital to the survival of companies or
individuals. Our society my be about to fall apart and this book, while falling short of
predicting that, proves that is is possible.
sfrancis@sympatico.ca
from Toronto , 03/26/98, rating=10:
Buy this book for your broker.
I know that sounds superficial, but she, like most other people I know, just doesn't have
a clue about the year-2000 issue. This book will help.
I've worked with computers for 30 years, and I think of the 90s as a
kind of golden age: quick and affordable healthcare if I get sick, television, the
internet, travel, a fun way to make a living. But now, as I work on a year-2000 conversion
project, I wonder what kind of civilization we're looking at two years away. There's a
kind of eerie calm before the apocalypse.
I hesitated to give this book a 10. It isn't a page-turner. You have
to really work at it. But it's very carefully written, and in it's pre-publication
incarnation on the internet it elicited lots of good comment from knowleable people, and
much of this is now part of the book. The Yourdons touch on things which affect us in
major ways -- utilities, transportation, banking, government services, and so on. My guess
is that Time Bomb 2000 will be one of the best, maybe the best, of a glut of titles that
are beginning to come out now that the rest of the world is catching on.
Time Bomb is an excellent non-technical presentation about a
difficult and painful subject. It's great that someone who understands technology and
computers can write so well about social issues as Ed Yourdon (never mind that a techie
can write well at all). The Yourdons are starting to shake things up.
rebecca@nonoise.com from
Seattle, Washington, USA , 12/01/97, rating=10:
excellent analysis of the possible social impacts of y2k
The programming community has been at least peripherally aware of issues surrounding y2k
for some time now. Mortgage companies figured it out thirty years ago. Corporations with 7
year depreciation schedules noticed in 1993. Anyone doing five year planning spotted it in
1995. Everyone involved in credit card processing is painfully aware of issues surrounding
expiration dates past 1999. With all this going on, how come y2k isn't more widely known
outside the programming community?
The Yourdons spend only a little time discussing that. Most of their
space is more profitably devoted to a description of what else might break in the coming
weeks, months and years. Since it's virtually impossible to know how much effort is being
put into solutions currently (and how well that effort is directed), the Yourdons provide
a framework for planning on how to deal with the resulting disruptions. Their framework is
organized by time-magnitude (disruptions that last a day or two, a month, a year or a
decade) and by area of effect (telecommunications, government, banking and finance,
power/utilities, etc.).
It would be easy, writing this book, to descend rapidly into
gloom-and-doom-survivalist rhetoric, whinging on about the imminent end of the world. The
Yourdons don't go there. They don't even mention guns. Their only comment on the dread
topic of FEMA is that they are not doing well on their y2k efforts. Instead, the Yourdons
emphasize things that can be done relatively easily now (and that aren't a bad idea even
if nothing breaks on January 1 2000!), especially given two years to prepare. And they
emphasize a simplification of lifestyle and flexibility to future change -- two popular
topics independent of the y2k issue.
It's a very impressive book. I would imagine that most people who
live in earthquake areas (like Seattle!) are minimally prepared for an earthquake, if at
all (I, for example, always have a certain amount of canned food and candles around, but
I'm inconsistent about stocking batteries for the flashlights and keeping bottled water in
the house). But that minimal preparation can make a big difference if you can convince a
lot of people to do it, and is generally hammered on by the local news whenever there is a
small quake. I only hope that similar levels of preparedness are emphasized in the last
portion of 1999.
Candace Turner
Candace1@USA.net from Joplin, Missouri , 11/14/97, rating=10:
TIME BOMB should be a Movie!
Hopefully, the Movie of TIME BOMB will shortly be appearing! I envision it being done with
4 different families who view Year 2000 and their necessary Fallback Preparations for the
4 different time periods. The Family (Australian) who thinks it will be a 2-day disruption
is planning on alot of fun 2000 celebrations and a long party. The Family (European) who
thinks it will be a Month's Fallback will be inviting relatives from the city and all
their adventures getting ready to double up. The Family (American) who thinks it will be a
Year's Fallback and effort to move to the countryside. The Family (Canadian Programmer)
who thinks it will be a decade will be moving to a third world country. Will the first
Movie End on 9/9/99 or 1/1/2000 or 1/1/2001? Ed & Jennifer Yourdon have written the
most valuable book of the century! I hope it appears with space available for reader's own
workbook plans for Year 2000. I am a very grateful reader and grandmother.
Timothy Barney
twb@fame.com from Ann Arbor, MI , 11/03/97, rating=10:
Best Analysis of Y2K available for laymen
Among the many writings on the problems computers will face with the Year 2000, this is by
far the best. First, it treats the problem seriously, not slighting the real potentials
for trouble. Second, and most importantly, it presents in very readable form, the known
facts of the situation, and allows you to determine your own, reasoned analysis and
conclusions. This book is one of those rare writings that are a marked contribution to
society, alerting us to a real danger and offering helpful suggestions on what we as
individuals can do to prepare for it.
MikeG1@mcwtech.com from
Seattle, WA , 11/02/97, rating=10:
If you only read one year 2000 book, this should be it
I read this in manuscript, and I was impressed. This is not a book for techno-geeks, but
rather a treatment for the man in the street. If you're concerned as to how the "Year
2000 Bug" will affect YOU, you need to read this book. Ed and Jennifer offer a
wide-ranging review of what's going on, and practical and useful suggestions on how you
can cope with what might be a serious problem.
A reader from Roleigh
Martin, Edina, Minnesota , 11/02/97, rating=10:
The most important book written on the Y2k problem!
This is the number one book to get on the Year 2000 crisis. Yourdon is considered by many
to be history's greatest expert in software development management. If anyone says that
Y2k efforts are behind schedule and a crisis is a high probability and is to be believed,
it has to be Yourdon. This will be looked upon as the most important book written on the
subject! Order extra copies to send to your mayor, utility officials, State legislators,
bank president, pastor, relatives, friends, etc. This book was available on the internet
prior to 11/97 and I've read it and give it my highest endorsement. This book is addressed
to lay people explaining how the crisis can affect you individually and steps you can
consider taking ahead of time to minimize the crisis's impact.
rohrssen@bigfoot.com from
USA , 10/27/97, rating=10:
A simple laymans approach to understanding the Y2K issues.
This is one of the most practical books that I've read on Y2K issues to date. There are a
lot of authors that go to extremes on the issues. But, Ed and Jennifer Yourdon offer sound
reasoning on the scope of the Y2K problems that we will all face. I would suggest that you
get several copies of this book and pass it around to friends and relatives.
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